Will there be another dotcom bust?

Many people believe that the markets follow a 10 year (8 to 11 years to be exact (sic)) cycle… Internet as a business had seen the bust in the late 90’s – 2K. This means, it is about time that the bust reoccurs.
The last few years have seen a rapid expansion of the Internet, especially what we call the web 2.0 explosion with Social Media riding the wave. Most of the new age Internet businesses have come to life with Venture Capital funding, and low on strong revenue model. I am not sure of the numbers – but almost all of them are not making any profits… so how long will the good times last?
As the business cycle model goes after every expansion comes crisis. In today’s world all the publisher (especially the online social media companies) are vying for the limited time a person has on hand… It is today more about share of clock, than share of wallet they are after. For every MySpace – you have Orkut, FaceBook, Hi5, and many more…
What is happening is that the time spent by the user online is more or less plateau, while the options offering him/her the same online experience and engagement are increasing... As is the wont of people – they would have an initial enthusiasm for something new, and soon their interest wanes away… once they find that there is nothing new the website would offer to them from the previous one..
The end of the last dotcom bust gave rise to the Web2.0; the players that successfully overrode the last bust phase are now strong players – ebay, amazon, google, etc. If there is a bust, only the strong will overcome and most of the me too players would fade away…. And soon the internet market would see the rise of web 3.0

Cheers

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