Trendspotting: The Future of SMS
This year’s Independence Day was slightly different from the earlier year(s). No it is nothing to do with Flag hoisting, or the fact that it came on a Sunday (and thus a holiday that got wasted)…. It was different because I did not receive even a single SMS from my friends or acquaintances wishing me a Happy Independence Day. Strange, because over the past few year it was a norm that during festivals and occasions your mobile phone keeps buzzing continuously because of the deluge of SMS being received. Also…neither did I send any SMS to anyone.
Well, it is not just Independence Day messages…. It is generally seen that people are slowly shifting from Short Message Services usage that the operators provide by default. Most of my SMS are limited to – I’m busy, call back category, My address/reference category, I’m avoiding talking to you category, and alternate to email category.
While the industry trends show that the volume of SMS messages would grow for the next few years… (with Global SMS messages reaching 3K Billion in 2010 – See the chart – location: http://www.telecom2.com/images/tekelec_fig1.gif )… I think in markets that are matured…specifically where a segment of the audience is matured and using phones with high-end features, the usage of SMS would have flattened, if not, started to decline.
If I were to look at the type of SMS that I’ve been receiving (I’ve mentioned above the categories of SMS’s that I send regularly)… it is mostly SPAM. Be it getting cheap personal loans, to buying a flat, to free Coke with Rs. 150/- worth of purchase…. Or even click and down load the latest Britney Spears video Free…. More than 80% of the SMS are junk… By and far the number of relevenat messages I get through SMS has reduced considerably from past few years back. The reason for the same is that the cost of calling has come down drastically, that people prefer (and in some instances/packages… it is cheaper) calling rather than texting to people they know
If I were to map the reason for communication (after all SMS texting is a mode of communication) with human behavior…it would give a fair idea what role SMS have been majorly playing and how it is being replaced by the latest trends in technology.
A typical human social network can be mapped in 3 circles… The inner circle, the intermediate circle, and the outer circle
The Inner circle is the close group of family, friends and immediate people with whom he regularly interacts. Here the communication is usually personal, with sight and touch playing an important role along with voice. Text is usually used when there is a lot of barrier in terms of the message getting across.
The Intermediate circle would consist again of friends, distant relatives, and colleagues…. Since there are a lot of barriers in terms of being at the same place most of the time… the preferred way of communication is voice or text… Here SMS would play a vital role.
The Outer circle is where there are many in the network, who are acquaintances, and others who are not in the active radar… Here the reason for communication is by and far rare and limited to specific occasions. Most of the time the message is neither personal nor one-to-one. It is here when SMS used to be used a lot…. But now is being replaced by real time social networking sites updates (with FB-Status updates, Twitter-What’s happening, etc)
Then there is another type which is more of broadcast type of message - “one message for all”. These messages usually cut across all the 3 circles….Generally many of the occasion based SMS fall in this category… the same is also being replaced by technology and proliferation of Social networking applications on the mobile phones
Taking the Independence Day wishes update – Most of the people in my network updated their status message (including myself) and thus had broadcasted what one needed to communicate on this occasion. Thus cutting down the need for sending a group SMS to all and sundry. Had it been few years back… each one of us (in my network) would have been sending at least 50 SMS messages.
As we go along the usage of SMS would get limited to Intermediate circle, with more and more proliferation of usage of mobile SNS applications and thus the quantity of SMS sent would decrease too.
My above reasoning is further backed by another seemingly unrelated development in the product offerings of a popular mobile service provider in India. There is a new ad of Tata DoCoMo – which talks about ‘pay per site’ data usage (watch here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wV1-cHJmJac). The advertising carries prominently the logo of Twitter and Facebook. With a flat monthly rate you can access your favourite site and have unlimited data access… Such offerings surely would ring if not death knell…at least a serious blow to SMS
Or maybe SMS messages in its new Avatar would stand for – Social Media Status messages
Cheers
Santosh
Well, it is not just Independence Day messages…. It is generally seen that people are slowly shifting from Short Message Services usage that the operators provide by default. Most of my SMS are limited to – I’m busy, call back category, My address/reference category, I’m avoiding talking to you category, and alternate to email category.
While the industry trends show that the volume of SMS messages would grow for the next few years… (with Global SMS messages reaching 3K Billion in 2010 – See the chart – location: http://www.telecom2.com/images/tekelec_fig1.gif )… I think in markets that are matured…specifically where a segment of the audience is matured and using phones with high-end features, the usage of SMS would have flattened, if not, started to decline.
If I were to look at the type of SMS that I’ve been receiving (I’ve mentioned above the categories of SMS’s that I send regularly)… it is mostly SPAM. Be it getting cheap personal loans, to buying a flat, to free Coke with Rs. 150/- worth of purchase…. Or even click and down load the latest Britney Spears video Free…. More than 80% of the SMS are junk… By and far the number of relevenat messages I get through SMS has reduced considerably from past few years back. The reason for the same is that the cost of calling has come down drastically, that people prefer (and in some instances/packages… it is cheaper) calling rather than texting to people they know
If I were to map the reason for communication (after all SMS texting is a mode of communication) with human behavior…it would give a fair idea what role SMS have been majorly playing and how it is being replaced by the latest trends in technology.
A typical human social network can be mapped in 3 circles… The inner circle, the intermediate circle, and the outer circle
The Inner circle is the close group of family, friends and immediate people with whom he regularly interacts. Here the communication is usually personal, with sight and touch playing an important role along with voice. Text is usually used when there is a lot of barrier in terms of the message getting across.
The Intermediate circle would consist again of friends, distant relatives, and colleagues…. Since there are a lot of barriers in terms of being at the same place most of the time… the preferred way of communication is voice or text… Here SMS would play a vital role.
The Outer circle is where there are many in the network, who are acquaintances, and others who are not in the active radar… Here the reason for communication is by and far rare and limited to specific occasions. Most of the time the message is neither personal nor one-to-one. It is here when SMS used to be used a lot…. But now is being replaced by real time social networking sites updates (with FB-Status updates, Twitter-What’s happening, etc)
Then there is another type which is more of broadcast type of message - “one message for all”. These messages usually cut across all the 3 circles….Generally many of the occasion based SMS fall in this category… the same is also being replaced by technology and proliferation of Social networking applications on the mobile phones
Taking the Independence Day wishes update – Most of the people in my network updated their status message (including myself) and thus had broadcasted what one needed to communicate on this occasion. Thus cutting down the need for sending a group SMS to all and sundry. Had it been few years back… each one of us (in my network) would have been sending at least 50 SMS messages.
As we go along the usage of SMS would get limited to Intermediate circle, with more and more proliferation of usage of mobile SNS applications and thus the quantity of SMS sent would decrease too.
My above reasoning is further backed by another seemingly unrelated development in the product offerings of a popular mobile service provider in India. There is a new ad of Tata DoCoMo – which talks about ‘pay per site’ data usage (watch here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wV1-cHJmJac). The advertising carries prominently the logo of Twitter and Facebook. With a flat monthly rate you can access your favourite site and have unlimited data access… Such offerings surely would ring if not death knell…at least a serious blow to SMS
Or maybe SMS messages in its new Avatar would stand for – Social Media Status messages
Cheers
Santosh
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